# Analysis of the likelihood of appeal

Hamilton County Judges

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Hamilton County judges try thousands of cases each year. In an overwhelming majority of the cases disposed, the verdict stands as rendered. However, some cases are appealed, and of those appealed, some of the cases are reversed. Kristen DelGuzzi of The Cincinnati Enquirer conducted a study of cases handled by Hamilton County judges over a three-year period. Shown in Table 4.8 are the results for 182,908 cases handled (disposed) by 38 judges in Common Pleas Court, Domestic Relations Court, and Municipal Court. Two of the judge (Dinkelacker and Hogan) did not serve in the same court for the entire three-year period. The purpose of the newspaper’s study was to evaluate the performance of the judges. Appeals are often the result of mistakes made by judges, and the newspaper wanted to know which judges were doing a good job and which were making too many mistakes. You are called in to assist in the data analysis. Use your knowledge of probability and conditional probability to help with the ranking of the judges. You also may be able to analyze the likelihood of appeal and reversal for cases handled by different courts.

Managerial Report

Prepare a report with your rankings of the judges. Also, include an analysis of the likelihood of appeal and case reversal in the three courts. At a minimum, your report should include the following:

1. The probability of cases being appealed and reversed in the three different courts.

2. The probability of a case being appealed for each judge.

3. The probability of a case being reversed for each judge.

4. The probability of reversal given an appeal for each judge.

5. Rank the judges within each court. State the criteria you used and provide a rationale for your choice.

 Common Pleas Court Total Cases Appealed Reversed Judge Disposed Cases Cases Fred Cartolano 3,037 137 12 Thomas Crush 3,372 119 10 Patrick Dinkelacker 1,258 44 8 Timothy Hogan 1,954 60 7 Robert Kraft 3,138 127 7 William Mathews 2,264 91 18 William Morrissey 3,032 121 22 Norbert Nadel 2,959 131 20 Arthur Ney, Jr. 3,219 125 14 Richard Niehaus 3,353 137 16 Thomas Nurre 3,000 121 6 John O’Connor 2,969 129 12 Robert Ruehlman 3,205 145 18 J. Howard Sundermann 955 60 10 Ann Marie Tracey 3,141 127 13 Ralph Winkler 3,089 88 6 Total 43,945 1762 199 Domestic Relations Court Total Cases Appealed Reversed Judge Disposed Cases Cases Penelope Cunningham 2,729 7 1 Patrick Dinkelacker 6,001 19 4 Deborah Gaines 8,799 48 9 Ronald Panioto 12,970 32 3 Total 30,499 106 17 Municipal Court Total Cases Appealed Reversed Judge Disposed Cases Cases Mike Allen 6,149 43 4 Nadine Allen 7,812 34 6 Timothy Black 7,954 41 6 David Davis 7,736 43 5 Leslie Isaiah Gaines 5,282 35 13 Karla Grady 5,253 6 0 Deidra Hair 2,532 5 0 Dennis Helmick 7,900 29 5 Timothy Hogan 2,308 13 2 James Patrick Kenney 2,798 6 1 Joseph Luebbers 4,698 25 8 William Mallory 8,277 38 9 Melba Marsh 8,219 34 7 Beth Mattingly 2,971 13 1 Albert Mestemaker 4,975 28 9 Mark Painter 2,239 7 3 Jack Rosen 7,790 41 13 Mark Schweikert 5,403 33 6 David Stockdale 5,371 22 4 John A. West Total 2,797 108,464 4 500 2 104